Bitcoin 

BTC

$16,806

In a tweet on Jan. 4, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital revealed just how remarkable the current Bitcoin bear market really is.

BTC price 200-week moving average out of reach

Not only has Bitcoin now spent more time below its 200-week moving average (WMA) than ever before, it is now further beneath it than at any time in history.

Looking at the weekly BTC/USD chart, Rekt Capital confirmed that as of Jan. 4, BTC/USD traded around 37% below the 200 WMA.

This, he noted, was “Deeper than the -31% retracement in March 2020.”

The numbers provide interesting reading in a bear market which has yet to see BTC price retracements from all-time highs rival previous bottoms in percentage terms.

In March 2020, Bitcoin abruptly lost 60% in a matter of days as markets reacted to the first wave of mass coronavirus lockdowns.

At the time, however, the largest cryptocurrency spent less than two weeks below the 200 WMA — a clear contrast with 2022. BTC/USD lost the trendline — which also figured in the 2018 bear market — last August, and has since failed to reclaim it.

S&P 500 faces "March cycle low"

The situation may get worse still.

Related: Bitcoin analyst identifies new key levels as Ethereum price nears 3-week high

Analysts are currently betting on Q1 offering a further test of bulls’ resolve, even if it ultimately closes with BTC price action higher than at present.

For trader, investor and entrepreneur Bob Loukas, meanwhile, correlated markets may themselves see their macro bottom in the coming quarter.

Analyzing the S&P 500 on weekly timeframes, Loukas described the past year’s comedown as unparalleled in its textbook nature.

“This has been the cleanest Stock bear market decline i've ever seen,” he told his Twitter followers.

“Currently still points to declines into a March Cycle Low.”

Bitcoin has underperformed both stocks and gold since the FTX meltdown, Cointelegraph reported, leaving the door open for what optimists hope will be a game of “catch up.”

Late last month, David Marcus, CEO and founder of Bitcoin firm Lightspark, predicted that the “crypto winter” would outlast 2023 and even extend past Bitcoin’s next block subsidy halving event, expected around April 2024.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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The New York State Department of Financial Services, or NYDFS, has reached an agreement with Coinbase following an investigation into the cryptocurrency exchange’s compliance program.

In a Jan. 4 announcement, the NYDFS said Coinbase will pay a $50-million fine in response to violations of New York’s financial services and banking laws, as well as invest $50 million to correct its compliance program. According to the financial regulator, the crypto exchange had many compliance “deficiencies” related to anti-money laundering (AML) requirements. The NYDFS reported issues with Coinbase’s process for onboarding users and monitoring transactions.

“Coinbase has acknowledged its failures in this respect to the Department,” said the NYDFS. “Furthermore, certain of these issues have been known to Coinbase since at least 2018, flagged through both internal assessments and external reviews, including examinations conducted by the Department. Although Coinbase has worked to correct these issues, its progress has been slow: progress in certain areas did not occur until recently, and work remains outstanding to the present.”

New York regulators reported that Coinbase allowed customers to open accounts without conducting sufficient background checks — a violation of AML requirements under the state’s licensing regime. According to the regulator, the growth in the number of users at the crypto exchange had contributed to a “failure to keep pace” with monitoring suspicious transactions, citing a backlog of more than 100,000 alerts.

“We’re proud of our commitment to compliance, but we are also willing to acknowledge where we have fallen short, including by paying penalties & working hard to fix issues,” said Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal. 

Related: Coinbase report shows dramatic increase in law enforcement enquiries worldwide

The NYDFS has been requiring crypto firms to obtain a BitLicense in order to operate in the state since 2015. Coinbase first received its license in 2017. Policymakers have imposed different requirements on the crypto exchange and others under the regulatory regime since its inception, including annual assessment fees and pushes to abandon the program entirely.